November 2014

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update

Global Economic Outlook: Q3 US growth masks domestic weakness.

The choppy, uneven global recovery continues amid diverging growth patterns. Positively, the first estimates for US growth in Q3 were above market expectations, at an annualised 3.5%; however, domestic drivers remain weak with the major impetus coming from strong export growth, which given global demand weakness is unlikely to be replicated going forward. Meanwhile, the euro zone faces the prospect of entering an unprecedented triple dip recession, and growth in major emerging markets continues to slow. As such, we forecast real global growth of 2.3% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015.

However, despite the marked fall in oil prices downside risks still outweigh upside risks. In particular, with the US Federal Reserve quantitative easing programme ended, market uncertainty is now focused on the timing and size of the inevitable interest rate rises. Markets are also unsettled by the consequent strengthening of the US dollar, while the reduction in global liquidity will hit capital flows into the emerging markets and the prospect of deflation threatens European growth prospects.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.


Government changes course on tax reform amid business community protests.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Colombia.pdf


Economic sentiment declines further following the widespread Russian food ban.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Lithuania.pdf


The economy is growing steadily following brighter Q2 data, with exports benefiting from strong demand.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Taiwan.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

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D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local D&B Office.


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