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December 2014

Country Risk Update

Aggressive Policy to Boost Growth?

Global economic growth continues to make slow progress, but diverging growth paths and the consequent different policy reactions have become more apparent in Q4 2014. The US, the UK and a number of smaller economies such as Ireland, Malaysia, New Zealand and Vietnam are seeing stronger growth. However, many countries are facing a period of slower growth, with the result that November witnessed a number of aggressive policy adjustments in attempt to boost growth. In China, a benchmark one-year rate was cut by 0.4 percentage points (pp) to 5.6%, the first cut in two years, while in Japan the second stage of the sales tax hike due in Q1 2015 was delayed, with the Bank of Japan having expanded its stimulus programme the previous month. In Europe the ECB signalled that it was prepared to undertake further stimulus.

Meanwhile, downside risks continue to outweigh the positive benefits expected from the sharp drop in oil prices. In particular, monetary policy is not a silver bullet, while market uncertainty over the timing and size of the inevitable US interest rate rises, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the reduction in global liquidity, acts as a headwind, as does the prospect of deflation in Europe.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Hungary

Pressure mounts on coalition after a trade union threatens a roadblock.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Hungary.pdf

Ireland

Water charge triggers period of political turbulence.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Ireland.pdf

Venezuela

Falling oil prices push the fiscal deficit to unsustainable levels.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Venezuela.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking for different countires?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local D&B Office.

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