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July 2015

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

Following three years of low global growth we expect growth in 2015 also to be weak at around 2.6%, similar to 2014. The continuing weak growth has impacted global trade volumes which according to WTO data only grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% in Q1 2015, down from 1.8% in the previous quarter. In terms of exports there was a clear divide between emerging economies which saw volumes increase by 1.5% q/q, with all regions except Asia growing by 3% or more. However exports from developed countries fell by 0.5% q/q, with US exports decelerating sharply by 4.5%.

Furthermore, uncertainty around two key issues will continues to act on spending and investment decisions in the short term. The first issue is in relation to future changes in monetary policies, in particular the timing and speed of the US and UK interest rate rises but also how long the ECB and Bank of Japan will maintain their accommodative policies. The second uncertainty is related to the Greek debt negotiations: can a Grexit be stopped safely and if not what will be the contagion effects? Adding to the uncertainty are security risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the strong US dollar is adding to the volatility in the currency, capital and commodity markets.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Chile

Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Chile's country risk rating due to political strain and economic weakness.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Chile.pdf

Denmark

The general election results in a fragile majority for the centre-right coalition.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Denmark.pdf

Indonesia

A new rule makes it illegal to use foreign currency in domestic transactions.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Indonesia.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking For Different Countries?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local D&B Office.

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