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September 2016

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

Markets and businesses have had time to consider the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Although the timing of the exit and the nature of the future relationship between the EU and the UK remains unclear, the worst aspects of the initial Brexit tantrum have subsided as the world faces the new normal. The Vix volatility index slid to its lowest level since August 2014, while oil rebounded to its pre-Brexit price of around USD50/b. Nevertheless, uncertainty continues to dominate the global economic outlook.

In this regard, attention is now turning to when the US fed will raise interest rates. Our core scenario is that there will be one further interest rate rise before the end of 2016. The Fed is concerned about slowing the already anaemic recovery but is weighing this against the possibility of risky imbalances arising from the years of loose monetary policy by the world’s leading central banks. Against this background, we are currently forecasting that global real GDP growth will slow to 2.2% in 2016, from 2.5% in 2015, with all regions performing more poorly than in 2015 – with the notable exception of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Canada

The goods trade deficit reaches a new record low in the second quarter.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Canada.pdf

Vietnam

Tensions with China rise over military deployments in the South China Sea.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Vietnam.pdf

Greece

The economic recovery struggles to take hold, but labour market conditions improve.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Greece.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking For Different Countries?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local Bisnode D&B Office.

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