September 2015

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

In China, further evidence of slowing output, the stock market crash, which authorities have been unable to contain, and a change in exchange rate regime with a devaluation of 4-5% (prompting a 0.25 percentage point cut to lending and deposit benchmark rates), have added another layer of volatility to global capital, currency and commodity markets. The yuan’s devaluation, in tandem with a strong US dollar, has raised fears of successive waves of competitive devaluations in and beyond the Asia Pacific region. Currencies pegged to the US dollar may come under pressure, following Kazakhstan’s delinking of the peg and loss of a fifth of its currency’s US dollar value.

Commodity prices have hit a six-year low with further downward movement likely. In addition, the timing and pace of US interest rate rises, raise uncertainty. The fact that the euro has enjoyed safe haven inflows in recent weeks is in an indication of the shift in emerging market expectations. Economic growth forecasts for 2016 are due to see further and frequent revisions down, as the transition will last more than a few quarters.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.


The extended oil price slump pushes the country to the brink of recession.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Norway.pdf

South Africa

Increasing FX-denominated debt poses medium-term risks to financial stability.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: South Africa.pdf

Russian Federation

The rouble tumbles amid an emerging-market rout and oil price slide.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Russia Federation.pdf

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