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November 2016

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

A series of political uncertainties into 2017 are weighing on the already weak global economic outlook. With resurgent nationalism and protectionism, in both goods and labour markets, impacting on election cycles globally, the November 2016 presidential election results in the US have set the tone for economic developments out into the medium term. Markets had failed to price in the chances of the Trump victory bringing an increase in populist trends into global political discourse.

However, the shock of the Brexit vote in the UK had already showed that markets fail to price in political risk. In addition, parliamentary polls are scheduled in The Netherlands, France and Germany in 2017 (plus presidential elections in Austria in December 2016 and in France in Q2 2017). Thus, several key economies in Europe could see a change of government policies towards the economy and the EU itself in the next twelve months.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Theresa May has announced that the UK will initiate Article 50, triggering the two-year period for leaving the EU, by end-Q1 2017. Worryingly, the indications are that the UK will adopt a strategy around a ‘hard’ exit restricting migrants, which is liable to increase the radical uncertainty for businesses into the medium term. Moreover, the threat from President-elect Donald Trump to withdraw the US from NAFTA has parallels with the 1930 'Smoot-Hawley' Tariff Act which impeded the recovery from the Great Depression.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Brazil

Economic signals remain mixed but contraction gradually decelerates.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Brazil.pdf

Germany

The country's international competitiveness slips marginally.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Germany.pdf

Japan

The current account balance improves due to cheap energy prices and plummeting imports.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Japan.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking For Different Countries?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local Bisnode D&B Office.

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