Country Risk Update
Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.
According to preliminary estimates, seasonally adjusted US economic growth slowed significantly from 2.2% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in Q4 2014 to only 0.2% q/q in Q1, on the back of weaker-than-expected global demand, a strong dollar, slowing investment and harsh weather. With the first three trends liable to continue throughout 2015, we have lowered our real GDP growth forecast for the US from 3.0% to 2.6%.
Aggressive central bank policies continue to be deployed outside the US. In Europe, the likelihood of an eventual Greek exit from European monetary union is increasing. Although the potential for contagion is significantly lower than a year ago, markets are not necessarily pricing in the impacts renewed speculation of a ‘Grexit’ could have on Spain, Portugal and Italy.
However, the ECB’s quantitative easing policy is bedding in, and markets are optimistic it will be efficacious; by mid-2015, the Eurozone will have enjoyed only a few months of the monetary policy medicine the Federal Reserve in the US deployed for a period spanning years. However, the near-term crunch point for Greece and its government’s struggles to raise cash will come in June or early Q3.
D&B Country Insight Snapshots
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
Numerous factors help growth return in February.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Argentina.pdf
Increased consumer spending makes business cautiously optimistic..
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Denmark.pdf
Hong Kong (S.A.R)
The political situation has not been defused but China is likely to proceed delicately.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Hong Kong.pdf
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