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March 2017

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

As highlighted in the recently released World Bank report Trade Developments in 2016, the global policy outlook for 2017 continues to face headwinds from political uncertainty in a number of advanced countries. Businesses and markets face an uncertain period over the policy direction of the new US administration, the outcome of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU, and the elections in a number of major European countries that could impact the future of the euro zone and the EU. Yet ‘animal spirits’ remained in evidence in February, as investors were more keen to focus on the pro-business agenda of the Trump administration than the risks to efficient international trade or slowing US credit growth. That said, we expect the policy uncertainty to reduce from Q3-Q4 2017.

More positively, the threat of deflation is abating as inflation picks up towards central bank targets in many advanced countries, including in the US and Europe. Furthermore, in emerging markets that have suffered above-target inflation, such as Brazil, Argentina and Peru, inflation is trending down. Nevertheless, inflation is still sub-par in Japan, and above-target inflation is a policy challenge in Turkey. Furthermore, a surge in inflation pressure is emerging as a problem for countries in the Middle East with exchange rates pegged to the US dollar, such as Saudi Arabia, where monetary policy cannot respond.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Chile

Growth forecast is hit by an ongoing strike at the world’s largest copper mine.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Chile.pdf

Indonesia

A damaging dispute in the mining sector disrupts copper output.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Indonesia.pdf

Iran

The IMF commends the authorities on the improved macroeconomic position.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Iran.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking For Different Countries?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local Bisnode D&B Office.

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