March 2016

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

We forecast global economic growth in 2016 of 2.4%, close to the estimated 2.4% for 2015. This lines up with the rest of the post-2012 experience in being below pre-crisis trends. Risks remain on the downside as uncertainty prevails regarding the direction of corporate profits, due to both US dollar strength and deteriorated fundamentals in the emerging markets that were the darlings of the post-crisis boom. Deflationary pressure has played out in increasing trade protectionism in intermediate goods such as steel in 2015, with India, Russia and the US the most active, according to the WTO.

The outlook is being exacerbated by fresh concerns about vulnerabilities in the banking sector in the advanced countries in relation to its exposure to loans in the energy sector and to the emerging markets. In addition, in Europe worries have increased over the referendum in June 2016 as to whether or not the UK should remain in the EU, as the strong US dollar, near-zero growth in Chinese industrial sectors, and weak commodity prices are adding further downsides to our growth forecasts, as the revision of our real GDP growth forecast for the US from 2.7% to 2.1% in February showed. The concern is that data show weakness spreading from out of manufacturing into small businesses.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.


The economy remains one of the world's fastest-growing driven by investment and consumption.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Philippines.pdf


Dun & Bradstreet upgrades Iran's country risk rating as most international sanctions are lifted.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Iran.pdf

United State of America

Headwinds faced by small businesses increase, prompting a growth forecast downgrade.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: United State of America.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking For Different Countries?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local Bisnode D&B Office.


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