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June 2016

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

We still expect a gentle lull in global economic growth to 2.3% in 2016, down from 2.6% in 2015, reflecting a pull-back in advanced economy growth from 2.0% to 1.7% while emerging economy growth remains at 3.3%, as in 2015. The slight decline in real GDP growth from 2015 levels in the US, despite its firm job market, and in China, as industrial output adjusts to excess capacity, are the largest drivers of the decline.

The recovery in the main oil price benchmarks to USD50 per barrel in May reflected 4m barrels of daily output lost due to supply disruptions, mainly in West Africa and Canada. However, high-cost output globally is also being cut back. In May, our oil price forecast for 2016 was raised from an average USD37.2 per barrel to USD43.7 (and that for 2017 from USD46.6 to USD56.6). As these prices remain below the cost curve for many non-Gulf producers, we expect this to do little to assist distressed oil-producing economies.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Singapore

The government maintains its reputation as being no-nonsense and business-friendly.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Singapore.pdf

Mexico

The government launches a tax evasion probe after the 'Panama Papers' leak.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Mexico.pdf

Switzerland

Our proprietary data shows a 9% increase in the number of business failures.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Switzerland.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking For Different Countries?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local Bisnode D&B Office.

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