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July 2016

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

The surprise decision by the British electorate to vote to leave the EU has resulted in a surge of uncertainty for the global outlook. In the wake of the UK’s referendum the pound sterling hit its lowest level against the US dollar for more than 30 years, while financial stocks in Europe and some market indices around the world crashed, highlighting the global effects. We anticipate that extreme volatility in capital markets will abate after a short period but keep returning, punctuated by periods of lower volatility, for months, as markets will be driven mainly by political cues in a process with no obvious roadmap.

Among the questions that will have to be faced are: To what extent will a ‘flight to safety’ away from the UK pound (and other EU currencies) occur? To what extent will this strengthen the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the price of gold? Will the prices of commodities such as oil weaken as the dollar strengthens? There is also the general question of global liquidity: will we see a return to the illiquid markets of 2008? How rapidly markets return to pre-Brexit volatility levels will to an extent be determined by the reactions of the main central bankers globally, but also by politicians, and politics, in the UK and rest of the EU.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Chile

Following a mining-led fall in output, we cut our growth forecast for the year.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Chile.pdf

Germany

The fallout from the UK's Brexit vote will weigh on economic performance in the coming quarters.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Germany.pdf

India

The rupee's resilience remains doubtful in Q3.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: India.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking For Different Countries?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local Bisnode D&B Office.

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