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February 2017

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

The global economic outlook is being undermined by political factors in early 2017: market and business uncertainty is high pending confirmation of the policy direction of the new US administration and the outcome of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU. In particular, the rhetoric and early policy decisions of President Trump have already increased concerns about the possibility of an era of trade wars, which – if they happened – would curtail global growth.

According to WTO research, protectionism has been slowly increasing since the global financial crisis in 2008. In addition, the strength of the US dollar will ensure that the pressure remains on emerging market currencies; the dollar's strength should be set to continue as the Federal Reserve raises its policy rate – even as these remain lower in most other OECD countries. Capital flight from emerging economies will be an ever-present threat in 2017, especially if aligned with domestic political uncertainties and weak economic fundamentals, as in the case of Turkey, which lost its last investment-grade sovereign rating in January.

Elsewhere, there are some more positive prospects: the generally stronger commodity prices being seen in early 2017 should help to boost the economies of commodity exporters; inflation is generally edging up towards policy targets in the OECD; and further marked US dollar strengthening is unlikely.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Canada

Canada looks to shift its focus as international trade deals start to unravel.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Canada.pdf

France

Political risk is elevated ahead of the upcoming elections, but the economy holds up well.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: France.pdf

Philippines

Strong domestic consumption and investment drives world-leading growth in 2016.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Philippines.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking For Different Countries?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local Bisnode D&B Office.

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