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December 2016

Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.

We estimate that global growth measured in real GDP terms slowed for a second consecutive year in 2016, to 2.2%, from 2.4% in 2015. The sole region to perform better in 2016 was Eastern Europe and Central Asia (going from a contraction of 0.8% to growth of 0.8%). North America disappointed, with real GDP growth falling from 2.3% to just 1.6%.

Looking ahead, we forecast that global real GDP growth will rebound in 2017, to 2.7% - the best level since 2011. However, two risks in particular will cloud the horizon in early 2017. The first risk involves uncertainties over the nature of US President-elect Donald J. Trump’s policies and how they impact on US growth and, more importantly, world trade: we are concerned that he will adopt a nationalist, protectionist agenda which could hit global confidence.

The second risk centres on the negotiations for the UK to leave the EU, which are due to formally open by end-Q1 2017; worryingly, the indications are that the UK will adopt a strategy of a ‘hard’ exit that restricts migration, which is liable to prolong radical uncertainty for business into the medium term. US financial markets have responded positively so far, but uncertainty remains.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Argentina

Economic activity declines in the third quarter as the recession continues.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Argentina.pdf

China

Transfer risks rise for overseas counter-parties expecting payments from China.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: China.pdf

Denmark

Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for Denmark as the government stabilises.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Denmark.pdf

To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

Looking For Different Countries?

D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

If you wish to order reports using your D&B subscription please click on the link and select the country/region in which you are registered as a D&B subscriber.

Non-D&B subscribers wishing to order reports please contact Customer Services at your local Bisnode D&B Office.

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