Country Risk Update
Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.
Uncertainty around short-term growth drivers is undermining the global outlook, with headwinds due to outweigh tailwinds over Q3-Q4. Falling corporate profits in the US, and deepening Chinese producer price deflation, along with the clear dependence of the Eurozone and Japan on quantitative easing, indicate that global growth in 2015 is likely to be around the weak 2.6% level achieved in 2014. India is forecast to grow at 8.4%, the highest level since the global recession, but its new GDP methodology is unproven and its growth does not translate much into global demand.
Recent mixed data means that the debate over the timing and pace of US interest rate rises still weigh on markets. Although our core scenario is still for a September 2015 Fed rate rise, to 0.25%, a lack of decisive economic data could see this first step being put back until December. Second, despite official protestations to the contrary, a Greek exit from European monetary union is looking more probable; and the US Treasury is nervous that the ECB and member states are more focused on exerting discipline on Athens than averting a financial shock. Markets are not necessarily pricing in how new waves of ‘Grexit’ anticipation could affect Spain, Portugal and Italy. Finally, the strong US dollar is adding to the volatility in the currency, capital and commodity markets.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
D&B Country Insight Snapshots
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
Mining exports help lift first-quarter growth above expectation.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Australia.pdf
Falling unemployment and strong wage growth boosts household disposable income.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Germany.pdf
Private and government consumption drive solid quarterly growth.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Georgia.pdf
To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.
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D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.
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