Country Risk Update
Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Risk Update.
We expect the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on 16 December will see US interest rates rise by 25bp; a prelude to further slow and steady increases in 2016. As the rise has been well signalled, beyond a short burst of volatility, capital markets are unlikely to experience a repeat of 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ on this occasion. However, the move is due to pressure emerging market currencies, especially those with high US dollar debt exposure. In addition, corporates in markets which have binged on cheap liquidity since 2008 are set face a challenging period as interest rate rise and currencies weaken.
Looking ahead, we expect global real GDP growth to edge upward to 2.7% in 2016 and rebound to 3.2% in 2017, after falling to an estimated 2.4% in 2015. Although we are currently predicting pick-up in growth across all regions, the main driver will be the North American region. We are currently forecasting real GDP growth in the US will be 2.7% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017, following an estimate for 2015 of 2.5%.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
D&B Country Insight Snapshots
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Egypt’s country risk rating and outlook in the wake of the downing of a Russian airliner.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Egypt.pdf
Political and security risks remain elevated after the AKP's convincing election victory.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Turkey.pdf
Central bank and federal budget watchdog anticipate slower growth and larger deficits.
Read D&B Country Insight Snapshot: Canada.pdf
To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.
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D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.
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